Daily Tech Snippet: Thursday, November 25

• Xiaomi's $45 Billion Valuation Seen `Unfeasible' as Growth Cools: Things were going so well for Xiaomi Corp. Customers were lining up, investors were swooning and the Beijing-based startup closed funding at a $45 billion valuation. That was last year. Now the high-flying smartphone maker is stumbling. Founder Lei Jun’s latest business, one of China’s most exciting startup stories of the past few years, is likely to miss its own goal of selling 80 million smartphones this year, according to two people with knowledge of its production plans. Suppliers also cut their internal targets for Xiaomi in anticipation of the shortfall, they said. Xiaomi’s falter shows the startup’s challenge in trying to maintain momentum after a meteoric ascent past Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. in China. Investors bought into the company’s story of youthful disruption and online sales, yet the subsequent lowering of China’s growth target and the copying of its sales strategy by rivals have neutralized Xiaomi’s first-mover advantage, putting its high price tag in doubt. "All those expectations of growth aren’t being realized, which now makes that $45 billion valuation unfeasible," said Alberto Moel, an analyst at Sanford C Bernstein in Hong Kong. "The argument was that their business is kind of like Apple and they’re growing very fast, but they’re no longer growing so fast and they’re not as good as Apple." Domestic shipments of Xiaomi smartphones, including its premium Mi 4 and more economical Redmi series, dropped 8 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, its first-ever decline, according to researcher Canalys. IHS, another research firm, estimates that Xiaomi shipments dropped 3.9 percent, barely maintaining the lead over Huawei Technologies Co. That’s a big change from the bold growth projections used to justify Xiaomi’s tag as one of the world’s most-valuable technology startups. In March of last year, Lei predicted selling 100 million smartphones in 2015. Through the first nine months of this year, Xiaomi shipped about 53 million smartphones. With its optimistic forecast, Xiaomi secured $1.1 billion in December from investors including GIC Pte., All-Stars Investment Ltd. and DST. Xiaomi drew comparisons to Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce company that months earlier held the largest initial public offering ever.

• Black Friday Deal or Dud? How to Shop Smart This Holiday Season: Black Friday, which has traditionally been the moment to flock to stores for steep discounts, and which has evolved to also include major online sales events for retailers like Amazon, Best Buy and Walmart, is not all that it is billed to be. We asked J. D. Levite, the deals editor of the product recommendations website The Wirecutter, for some data on just how beneficial the deals are on Black Friday — and the answer was not encouraging. Year round, Mr. Levite and his team track product prices across the web to unearth discounts on goods of all types, from gadgets to kitchenware. They also look at whether the product is high quality and durable based on their own testing and other reviews, and whether the seller or brand has a reasonable return or warranty policy. By those measures, Mr. Levite said, only about 0.6 percent, or 200 out of the approximately 34,000 deals online, which typically carry the same price tags inside retailers’ physical stores, will be good ones on Black Friday. “There are just more deals on that day than any other day of the year,” he said. “But for the most part, the deals aren’t anything better than what you’d see throughout the rest of the year.” There’s a smarter way to shop than relying on Black Friday. With the plethora of web tools now available, consumers can research online and then use trackers to follow product pricing for drops throughout the year. While it’s a time-consuming effort, the method is more precise for understanding pricing trends, both online and in stores. One useful tracking tool is Camel Camel Camel, which is geared toward users of the online retail behemoth Amazon. Using the Camel Camel Camel website, people can view a product’s price history on Amazon.com and then create alerts to receive an email as soon as the item’s price falls to a certain threshold. Over time, interesting trends emerge. One is that some product prices are raised in October, a few weeks before Black Friday. The prices are reduced again on Black Friday. Camel Camel Camel’s database also shows some items have predictable pricing patterns over the course of a year. A pair of bookshelf speakers made by Pioneer are typically $127, but that tends to drop significantly in August — to $60 in August 2014 and to $88 in August 2015, timed to the back-to-school season. This week, the same pair of speakers was again $127. In other words, there are times of year when different types of products decline in price — and Black Friday isn’t one of them.

• All In: Why Nikesh Arora Bet $483 Million on SoftBank's Future: It began late one night this year when he and Son were talking about people’s tolerance for risk and how it tends to decline over time. Arora took a chance as a kid by leaving India for the U.S. with only $200 in cash, but he had since gone on to a lucrative career. So Son prodded him. “Masa said, ‘How much risk appetite do you have?”’ Arora says. “‘Do you believe you can transform SoftBank into a company two, three, five times its size? Now is the time to take the risk.”’ A week later, Arora came back with a plan to buy 60 billion yen ($483 million at the time) in SoftBank shares, more than any insider purchase by an executive in Japan in at least 12 years, according to Bloomberg data. He would become the company’s second-largest individual shareholder and borrow heavily to do it. Arora says investors don’t yet appreciate what SoftBank is becoming. The company has been battered recently because of struggles at two major holdings, the China e-commerce powerhouse Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and the U.S. wireless operator Sprint Corp. SoftBank is still valued at less than the public shares it owns, meaning investors deem its operating businesses practically worthless.Arora professes not to be worried. He says investors will come around once the company makes progress in reviving Sprint, lets Alibaba recover and demonstrates that it’s more than a Japanese telecommunications company with a spotty investment record.“I’m very relaxed,” Arora said. “I’m here for at least the next 10 years.”  Arora was hired last year after a decade at Google Inc. and promoted to president in June. Since then, he has been quietly building his own operation within SoftBank, an investment arm that will take stakes in technology companies around the world. Though SoftBank put money into startups for decades, including a tumultuous foray during the dot-com bust, the effort had dwindled in recent years to what Son called a “hobby” next to his wireless and broadband businesses. Arora is reviving the venture push and making it much more ambitious. He is hiring a team of 15 to 20 outsiders and plans to put about $3 billion into startups each year. Arora’s recruits, from companies such as Google and LinkedIn Corp., are hand-picked for the expertise they can offer startups in key areas like personnel, product development and acquisitions. He says SoftBank will hold a competitive advantage by operating at a financial strata few can reach. He plans to make five to 10 investments a year of $100 million to $1 billion. The idea is to back startups that have proven products and need to expand -- the rapid phase of growth Arora helped manage at Google.

• Morgan Stanley Said Struggling to Sell EBay Enterprise Deal Loan: Morgan Stanley is struggling to unload $640 million of loans backing the private-equity buyout of EBay Inc.’s enterprise business after investors shunned the debt, according to people with knowledge of the deal. The bank has been trying to sell the loans since mid-October and continues to hold the debt even after EBay said on Nov. 2 that the sale was completed. Morgan Stanley has discussed a steeper discount to lure buyers and has been probing investors in recent days about the price at which they may be willing to buy the debt, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. One concern investors have raised is that the company’s projected earnings may be too optimistic. Buyout targets often make adjustments to forecast earnings, called add-backs, that can reduce a borrower’s leverage.

• HP Inc plunges after printer business underwhelms: Shares of HP Inc, which houses former Hewlett-Packard Co's legacy hardware business, plunged 16.3 percent on Wednesday after the company's lackluster results fueled concerns about its ability to weather a slowdown in the printer and PC markets. HP Inc's revenue from both its printer and PC businesses fell 14 percent each in the fourth quarter, their worst performance in the year ended Oct. 31, and forecast current-quarter profit below market expectations."Things got worse. Not only did they not get better - they got worse," said Shebly Seyrafi, an analyst at FBN Securities.HP Inc Chief Executive Dion Weisler called the printing business a "much greater challenge" than the PC business.The company has been cutting printer prices to tackle stiff competition, particularly from Japanese printer makers Canon and Epson.However, the price cuts, coupled with the effect of a stronger dollar, have reduced the value of income from overseas markets.Revenue from HP Inc's printer supplies such as ink cartridges and laser toner fell 10 percent this quarter. Supplies account for most of the profits for HP Inc.HP Inc's PC unit has been suffering as sales have been falling worldwide for several quarters and the launch of Windows 10 has so far failed to rekindle the industry."Ultimately I think (HP Inc), the way it's structured, it's going to be more of a sort of dividend yield play," said Jeffrey Fidacaro, an analyst.HP Inc's sibling, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, saw its shares rise as much as 8.5 percent on Wednesday, after it maintained its profit forecast for fiscal 2016.

• Zenefits Under Investigation For Allegedly Allowing Unlicensed Brokers To Sell Health Insurance: Cloud HR platform Zenefits may have allowed salespeople to illegally act as insurance agents in at least seven states. According to a BuzzFeed investigative report, the startup let unlicensed brokers sell health insurance, leading to at least one commissioner to investigate in Washington State. Those unlicensed solicitations go back to at least the summer of 2014, and the Washington State office of the insurance commissioner started looking at the potential violations earlier this year, according to the report. This is not the first time Zenefits has faced legal scrutiny for possible insurance violations. The Utah Insurance Department took the startup to task over claims it was illegally giving insurance software away for free. Regulators at the time said that the company violated local laws and that it was unfair to traditional insurance brokers. Utah legislators threw out the complaint and let Zenefits get back to business after both the Utah House and Senate overwhelmingly voted to let the startup continue operations. The broker license violation looks a bit more serious and could be considered a Class B felony, under Washington State law. Violators may be subject to a prison sentence of up to 10 years as well as face a $20,000 fine. According to the report, Zenefits execs may have known about the violations and were aware of the consequences, but were prompted to get sales agents licensed in the state only after learning of the insurance commission’s investigation. State records show 22 agents became licensed brokers just days after the report said Zenefits realized there was a state inquiry. The startup has since launched a “license management system” to help track which sales agents are properly licensed.

• Facebook’s Internet.org Now Available Throughout India: Internet.org, Facebook’s initiative to provide free Internet services in developing countries, is now available to all Indians through the Free Basics app on Reliance Communication’s network. The project is meant to give people in emerging economies easy access to the Internet, but has been hit by a slew of criticism. Reliance Communications is India’s fourth-largest telecom operator, with about 110 million subscribers as of June. According to its site, Free Basics will enable users to use Facebook and Facebook Messenger and access sites like Wikipedia, BBC News, Bing Search, Dictionary.com, and local news services. Detractors say that by making a handful of services available on its platform, Internet.org gives preferential treatment to its partners, therefore violating the tenets of net neutrality. In response, Facebook founder and chief executive officer Mark Zuckerberg said Internet.org will focus on offering basic services for free (hence the branding of its app) and is not meant to limit access to other providers. The company has also taken steps to make joining Free Basics easier to join for developers and other potential partners. This has done little to ameliorate critics who are concerned about the potential drawbacks of having a company as large and powerful as Facebook control what millions of new Internet users see. In addition to India, Free Basics is available in 30 countries throughout Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Latin America.